Hydrologic Applications (IPHEx-H4SE): Hydrologic Forecasting Benchmark Testbed (H4SE) in anticipation of multi-model Operational Hydrologic Forecasts during IPHEX2014.
1 Preparation and Model Benchmarking : 7/2013-4/2014
a. Preparing five-year forcing datasets (2007- 2011) for hydrologic modeling applications
A quality-controlled digital repository of comprehensive data sets of all meteorological, hydrometeorological, hydrological, and ancillary and observing data sets necessary to support the development of a Hydrometeorological Testbed (HMT) in the SE was developed, to provide the Hydrologic Modeling/Forecasting for the Southeast (IPHEx-H4SE) with common control forcing and landscape attributes to facilitate multi-scale, multi-purpose hydrologic modeling studies ranging from flash-flood forecasting to basin-scale water resource assessments. In the first phase of the project, the goal is to generate quality hydrometeorological forcing data sets at high spatial and temporal resolution (1km×1km, hourly time step), consisting of GIS data/maps, atmospheric forcing data, landscape attributes data, ancillary parameters, and observations, for the five-year time period 2007-2011 with a focus on four major large river basins with headwaters in the Southern Appalachians, including the Upper Tennessee River Basin, the Savannah River Basin, the Santee River Basin and the Yadkin-Pee Dee River Basin.
The science objectives are to establish a comprehensive data base that will serve as the foundation of the PMM HWG and HMT-SEPS common platform for transparent and robust testing and evaluation of various configurations of hydrologic and atmospheric models, the replication of operational forecasting applications under the same conditions, and thus the rigorous establishment of a state-of-the-science baseline in satellite-based QPE prior and after GPM launch.
b. Benchmark of QPE and Hydrologic Forecasts
b.1 Testbed Case-Studies (April - August)
This phase includes selection and documentation of distinct types of hydrometeorological and hydrological events for H4SE Benchmark, such as Tropical Storm Fay, which will be used to establish hydrologic model performance baselines. These case-studies will be examined by and agreed upon with the input of the PMM HWG. The goal is to establish the framework for PMM Hydrologists to participate in H4SE Modeling Benchmark activities. Events will be prioritized to facilitate Benchmark study.
The extended observing (9/2013 to 10/2014) and modeling area is the whole Southeast. The core intense observing (4/2014 to 6/2014) areas are within the Upper Tennessee River Basin covering topographically complex regions in the Southern Appalachians. More information about the field campaign can be found here . The Pigeon River Basin and the Upper Catawba River Basin within the Upper Tennessee River Basin are two small headwater catchments that will be equipped with a dense network of instruments and thus will be optimal catchments for detailed testing/modeling.
Participants can prepare for model simulations by setting up forcing datasets, or calibrating their models (if applicable). Participants will use the common forcing datasets at high resolution developed in this project.
b. 2 H4SE Modeling Benchmark Testbed (September - December)
Perform simulations for agreed upon case-studies by priority and develop framework to collect simulations from other participants including metrics of assessment. Metrics of assessment and data processing procedures will be agreed upon with PMM HWG. The scientific questions that the benchmark testbed focuses on are as follows:
- Evaluating accuracy of current radar-rainfall algorithms especially in mountainous regions through hydrological verifications;
- Evaluation of hydrological modeling/forecasting skills through intercomparison of hindcast and nowcast results;
- Quantitatively identifying uncertainty in models and QPEs/QPFs
2 Operational Forecasting Testbed : 4/2014-10/2014
H4SE Operational Forecasting Testbed, details coming soon…
3 Assessment & Synthesis: 10/2014-10/2015
Evaluation and Integration of Results